Procreation Motivation : How Effective are Natalist Policies?

Authors: Sammy Lee, Adam Cook

SUNY Campus: SUNY Fredonia

Presentation Type: Oral

Location: UUW 325

Presentation #: 8

Timeslot: Session B 10:15-11:15 AM

Abstract: Declining birth rates have been an alarming issue in high income east asian countries since the late 1980s. Along with decreasing child births, extreme competition in the job markets for college graduates in South Korea have drawn widespread concern. Recent analyses have claimed linkage between cultural pressure for success and the high unemployment rates, termed the “Golden Ticket Syndrome”. In this paper, I attempt to prove that the same force driving the syndrome also affects fertility rates. Most of similar past research done in the past focus on fertility intentions and actualization, utilizing cross-sectional survey data to analyze the difference between fertility intentions. I utilize a longitudinal dataset which includes total fertility rates and select economic indicators, then build an exponential regression model to gain insight into which indicators are effective predictors for birth rates. Upon building the model to estimate fertility rates, I test the effectiveness of natalist policies both in the extensive and intensive perspective by utilizing a difference-in-difference methodology, using the independent variables from the regression as covariates to estimate the fertility trends. I also test the timing of the model by applying different tempos for certain variables, to also develop an understanding as to when economic conditions affect individual decision making.