From Dot-Com Dreams to AI Realities: Automation, Disruption, and the Debate Over Universal Basic Income

Author: Samuel Beltra

Field of Study: Economics: Financial Economics

Program Affiliation: Source Project Research Program

Faculty Mentors: Will Glovinsky

Easel: 84

Timeslot: Morning

Abstract: Artificial intelligence is reshaping productivity and labor demand, while redistributing economic gains unevenly. Economists and experts vary over whether AI is a “normal” technology, improving productivity within existing capital-labor relationships, or it will transform that relationship. This project evaluates how far the internet revolution–a recent wave of large-scale automation–can serve as a model for understanding the AI era. It utilizes empirical studies of labor market transitions, wealth distribution data, and historical comparisons to the Internet revolution. The project argues that readings of the internet revolution help clarify two plausible paths for AI-driven automation. If firms use AI as a labor-supplementing technology, employment and wage patterns may resemble the internet era, with productivity gains diffusing more broadly. If, however, AI enables large-scale substitution of white-collar labor, as suggested by estimates such as Citrini’s, it could trigger concentrated wealth gains, widespread professional displacement, and stronger arguments for policies such as Universal Basic Income.