Institutional Resilience and Democratic Collapse in China’s Contested Territories

Author: Lukas Derasmo

Field of Study: Business Administration

Program Affiliation: Source Project Research Program

Faculty Mentors: Matthew Cole

Easel: 49

Timeslot: Afternoon

Abstract: Global authoritarianism has entered a hyper-modern phase in which legal tools and information operations replace blunt coercion as the primary instruments of eliminating a democracy. China's recent activity has produced two sharply divergent outcomes: the complete institutional collapse of Hong Kong and the sustained democratic resilience of Taiwan. This research examines the conditions under which democratic institutions either withstand or succumb to authoritarian encroachment, using the aforementioned as parallel cases of Beijing's pressure campaign. Analysis is performed across four dimensions: successful repression mechanisms in Hong Kong, failed repression against Taiwan, successful resistance in Taiwan, and vulnerabilities in Hong Kong. Analysis finds that robust institutions and civil society play a key role in protecting a threatened democracy. This challenges the assumption that external alliances are the decisive variable in democratic survival. The framework produced extends beyond these two cases to offer actionable lessons for democracies facing social-media-era authoritarian encroachment.