State Ideology and Latino Population as Predictors of 287(g) Immigration Enforcement Variation

Author: Maxime Le Lay

Field of Study: Political Science: Legal Studies; Philosophy, Politics and Law

Program Affiliation: Source Project Research Program

Faculty Mentors: Wendy Martinek

Easel: 84

Timeslot: Afternoon

Abstract: Scholars have examined immigration enforcement’s impact on deportations and crime, yet little research analyzes what drives variation in 287(g) agreements. 287(g) programs allow law enforcement agencies to enter Memorandum of Agreements (MOA) with ICE for federal immigration enforcement. This study examines whether state political ideology and Hispanic/Latino population percentage explain variation in 287(g) adoption across all fifty states. MOA count data was obtained from official ICE records through March 2026. State ideology is measured using Warshaw and Tausanovitch's (2022) MRP citizen ideology scores, with 2024 Republican presidential vote share serving as a robustness check. Hispanic/Latino population data was obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau (2024). Findings indicate conservative states adopt more MOAs, and states with very high Latino populations demonstrate the highest enforcement activity, consistent with threat hypothesis. These findings suggest that immigration enforcement is shaped by political culture and demographic composition, with implications for democratic inclusion.